Monday, February 12, 2007

Election 2008 Preview

It is now February 2007. The next election for U.S. president is in November 2008, a full 21 months away. Yet the campaign is already now in full swing. While this blog will seek to remain candidate-/party-neutral during these next excruciatingly long months, we will no doubt have many occasions to talk about important relevant issues, and the conduct of the campaign itself. We should seek to do this from a broad and open framework as to our thinking and values, not goals of partisan accomplishment.

Some observations on presidential politics to get us started:

We will be electing our 44th president. 42 white males have served in this office. (Grover Cleveland served two non-consecutive terms as the 22nd and 24th president.)

2008 represents the first genuine (i.e. not just a symbolic statement) presidential candidacy from a woman, from an African American, and from a Latino. Is the American citizenry potentially becoming an equal opportunity employer?

This election is the first since 1928 without a sitting president or vice president in the race. So it is wide open for selecting the candidates. (Truman lost the New Hampshire primary in 1952 and dropped out of the race.)

In the spirit of wide-openness, we currently have 21 (potential) candidates in various stages of announcement (*plans not formally announced):
Republican: Brownback, Gingrich*, Guiliani*, Hagel*, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Pataki*, Romney, Tancredo, Thompson*; Democrat: Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gore*, Kucinich, Obama, Richardson, Vilsack; Green: Nader*

So how many of these names do you know and can identify their place and politics?

Most of these candidates are currently serving in Congress. Many of our presidents had congressional experience. Yet in our entire history, only four people went directly as sitting congressmen to elected president (Kennedy, Harding, Benjamin Harrison, and Garfield, three of whom died in office). Most presidents (after the Founding Fathers) were former governors or had other executive responsibilities.

Eight of the 43 presidents were sitting vice presidents and ascended to the office when the president died. The vice presidential candidate should be an important part of our vote.

The national press will likely spend more time on the “horserace” sport of the presidential campaign, with constant emphasis on polls numbers rather than on discussion of issues. At this point in time, god bless the “undecided” voters.

If we really do not want to hear negative campaigning and sound bite debates, then we have to make that known, and honor our words by not responding to such meaningless disinformation.

It was recently estimated that any serious candidate will need to raise $100M to get their party’s nomination. The two final candidates will EACH spend @ $500M from primary start to election day finish.

The British elect their Prime Minister in a 6-week mandatory time limit.

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